Soundmark Risk Monitor - August 7, 2026
Risk conditions eased for a second consecutive session, with the Risk Monitor remaining firmly within the Low regime.
Current Risk State
SOUNDMARK RISK STATE: LOW
Current Reading: 15 / 100
Prior Close: 17 / 100
20-Day Change: +2 points
Current Regime: Low
The Soundmark Risk Monitor closed at 15 / 100 on August 7, down from 17 / 100 at the prior close.
The latest move extends the decline from the recent reading of 21 / 100 recorded on August 4 and August 5. Despite the movement within the index, the broader risk classification remains unchanged in the Low regime.
What Changed
The Risk Monitor declined by 2 points in the latest session, following a larger decline from 21 to 17 on August 6.
The recent sequence represents a reversal of the increase observed during late July and early August. The index moved from 13 / 100 on July 27 to 21 / 100 by August 4 and August 5 before retreating to its current level of 15 / 100.
Importantly, these changes have occurred entirely within the Low risk classification. Across the full 20-session history provided, the Soundmark Risk Monitor has remained in the Low regime.
Risk Monitor Trend
Over the past 20 trading sessions, the Risk Monitor has ranged from 12 / 100 to 21 / 100.
Readings remained concentrated in the low-to-mid teens through much of July before moving higher toward the end of the month. The index reached 19 / 100 on July 29, returned to 19 / 100 on August 3, and subsequently reached a 20-session high of 21 / 100 on August 4 and August 5.
Since then, the reading has moved lower for two consecutive sessions, falling to 17 / 100 on August 6 and 15 / 100 on August 7.
Relative to the first observation in the supplied 20-session window, the Risk Monitor is 2 points higher, but the broader classification remains unchanged.
What We Are Monitoring
The research focus over the coming sessions is whether the recent decline continues and returns the Risk Monitor toward the lower portion of its recent range, or whether the late-July and early-August increase begins to reassert itself.
The persistence of the current Low regime remains more significant than any individual daily movement in the index.
For long-term context, the current 15 / 100 reading remains near the lower end of the Risk Monitor’s historical range, well below the episodic stress periods in which the model has moved sharply into the Elevated and High regimes.
Research Perspective
The Soundmark Risk Monitor is designed to classify changes in the market risk environment rather than forecast specific daily market moves.
At 15 / 100, the current reading remains well within the Low risk classification. Recent fluctuations show that the aggregate risk environment can change within a regime without necessarily producing a change in the broader classification. The research focus therefore remains on the direction, magnitude, and persistence of changes over multiple sessions.
About the Soundmark Risk Monitor
The Soundmark Risk Monitor is a proprietary quantitative research framework developed by Soundmark Capital Research to systematically assess changes in market risk conditions.
The published Risk Monitor represents the aggregate output of the Soundmark research process. Individual model inputs, transformations, parameters, weighting methodologies and decision thresholds remain proprietary.
Important Disclosure
Soundmark Capital Research publishes general, impersonal market research for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing in this publication is tailored to any person's investment objectives, financial circumstances, or particular needs. Nothing herein constitutes individualized investment advice, a recommendation to buy, sell, hold, or otherwise transact in any security or financial instrument, or an offer or solicitation to provide investment advisory services or to buy or sell any security.
The Soundmark Risk Monitor reflects the output of a proprietary quantitative research process. Model outputs are subject to limitations and may be incomplete, inaccurate, delayed, or subject to revision. The methodology may evolve over time. Historical relationships, backtested or hypothetical results, and past performance are not guarantees of future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.
Information presented by Soundmark Capital Research is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Readers are responsible for independently evaluating any investment decision and should seek appropriate professional advice when necessary.
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