Soundmark Risk Monitor - August 10, 2026
The Risk Monitor edged higher while remaining in the Low regime, as cross-asset correlation moved into positive territory for the first time since July 2024.
Current Risk State
SOUNDMARK RISK STATE: LOW
Current Reading: 16 / 100
Prior Close: 15 / 100
20-Day Change: +4 points
Current Regime: Low
The Soundmark Risk Monitor closed at 16 / 100 on August 10, up one point from the prior reading of 15.
The increase was modest and leaves the broader classification unchanged within the Low risk regime. The current reading also remains below the recent high of 21 recorded on August 4 and August 5.
What Changed
The Risk Monitor moved slightly higher after declining over the final two sessions of last week. The reading had risen from the low teens in mid-July to 21 / 100 in early August before retreating to 17 and then 15.
Today's move to 16 / 100 represents a modest reversal of that recent decline rather than a change in the broader risk classification.
Across the most recent 20-session window, the Risk Monitor has ranged between 12 and 21, with every observation remaining within the Low regime.
Risk Monitor Trend
The 20-session trend continues to show a higher reading than in mid-July, despite the pullback from early-August levels. The Risk Monitor stands four points above the beginning of the current 20-session window but remains below its recent peak.
The persistence of the Low regime remains more significant than today's one-point increase. The research focus remains on whether the recent stabilization develops into another sustained rise or whether the reading resumes its decline toward the lower portion of its recent range.
What We Are Monitoring
The research focus over the coming sessions is whether the recent decline continues and returns the Risk Monitor toward the lower portion of its recent range, or whether the late-July and early-August increase begins to reassert itself.
The persistence of the current Low regime remains more significant than any individual daily movement in the index.
Viewed against the longer-term history of the Risk Monitor, the current 16 / 100 reading remains near the lower end of the model's historical range and well below levels observed during more pronounced periods of market stress. For long-term context, the current 15 / 100 reading remains near the lower end of the Risk Monitor’s historical range, well below the episodic stress periods in which the model has moved sharply into the Elevated and High regimes.
Research Perspective
The Soundmark Risk Monitor is designed to classify changes in the market risk environment rather than forecast specific daily market moves.
At 16 / 100, the current reading continues to indicate a Low risk environment within the Soundmark framework. Individual daily movements are therefore interpreted in the context of their magnitude, persistence, and whether they ultimately result in a broader regime change.
About the Soundmark Risk Monitor
The Soundmark Risk Monitor is a proprietary quantitative research framework developed by Soundmark Capital Research to systematically assess changes in market risk conditions.
The published Risk Monitor represents the aggregate output of the Soundmark research process. Individual model inputs, transformations, parameters, weighting methodologies and decision thresholds remain proprietary.
Important Disclosure
Soundmark Capital Research publishes general, impersonal market research for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing in this publication is tailored to any person's investment objectives, financial circumstances, or particular needs. Nothing herein constitutes individualized investment advice, a recommendation to buy, sell, hold, or otherwise transact in any security or financial instrument, or an offer or solicitation to provide investment advisory services or to buy or sell any security.
The Soundmark Risk Monitor reflects the output of a proprietary quantitative research process. Model outputs are subject to limitations and may be incomplete, inaccurate, delayed, or subject to revision. The methodology may evolve over time. Historical relationships, backtested or hypothetical results, and past performance are not guarantees of future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.
Information presented by Soundmark Capital Research is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Readers are responsible for independently evaluating any investment decision and should seek appropriate professional advice when necessary.
© 2026 Soundmark Capital Research. All rights reserved.
